War to the Death in Paraguay
War to the Death in Paraguay
This chapter discusses the Paraguayan War of the nineteenth century, in which Paraguay launched an aggressive war against Brazil and Argentina. It argues that this aggressive and risky move emerged from a fear of decline created by its neighbors' economic and military rise and by their incipient alliance. The case is particularly useful for analyzing dispositional commitment problems, as Brazil, but not Argentina, refused to consider negotiation with Paraguay. Historically, Paraguay had survived, like most buffer states, by playing off the two powers against each other, but the rapprochement of Argentina and Brazil fundamentally reshaped power politics in the region. The historical record demonstrates that Paraguayan fears of Argentina were well founded, but that those of Brazil were, if not unfounded, in fact inaccurate.
Keywords: Paraguayan War, Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina, buffer state, dispositional commitment problems
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