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Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of ChinaPower and Politics in East Asia$
Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China: Power and Politics in East Asia

Robert S. Ross

Print publication date: 2017

Print ISBN-13: 9781501709180

Published to Cornell Scholarship Online: January 2018

DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501709180.001.0001

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(p.299) Index

(p.299) Index

Source:
Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China
Publisher:
Cornell University Press
Abbott, Tony, 125–126, 167
Abe, Shinzo (administration of):
alliances, 38, 124–125, 160–168;
China and, 178, 185, 187, 194, 275;
constitutional reforms, 157–159;
military strategy and reforms, 10, 37–38, 140–142, 146, 149–162;
nationalism of, 17, 37–38, 120, 146–149;
Yasukuni Shrine visits, 178, 185, 221
Afghanistan, 110
Ahn Jung-geun statue, 221
Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), impact of, 24, 60, 104, 120, 145, 250, 252–253, 281, 293
Altman, Roger, 71
Aquino, Benigno, 240, 244
Article 9 (Japanese Constitution), 158–159
ASEAN:
cooperation with China, 106–107, 109, 127;
hedging by, 127–128;
Japan and, 163, 193;
South China Sea disputes and, 240–241, 245, 249, 257. See also individual members
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), 6, 82, 107
Australia:
China and, 6, 125–126, 292;
Japan and, 120–121, 163, 166–167;
U.S. and, 6, 104, 119, 120–121, 125, 292
Bader, Jaffrey A., 53–54, 237, 268
Bajoria, Jayshree, 30
balancer role, 206–207, 211
balancing, 35–40;
in bipolar era, 8, 41–42, 59–67, 91, 285, 286;
conditions favoring, 47–49, 52–53, 198–199;
external, 198–199;
Japan and, 287;
South Korea and, 198–199, 201, 215–216, 217, 225, 226;
underbalancing, 36–37
bandwagoning:
conditions favoring, 43, 199;
hedging vs., 51–52;
rhetorical, 209–210;
South Korea and, 199–200, 201, 206, 208–210, 224, 226–227
Ban Ki-moon, 185
Beijing consensus, 76–78, 84–86
Biden, Joe, 53, 221, 223–224
bipolar era, 57–68;
balancing in, 8, 41–42, 59–67, 91, 285, 286;
China-U.S. relations in, 8, 61–65, 62–63, 113–119, 122–123;
possible trajectories, 130–134
Blinken, Antony, 283
Booth, Ken, 57
Bo Xilai, 17, 32, 87, 177, 183
boycotts and embargoes:
consumer, 188–191;
rare earth embargoes, 74, 84, 148, 188–189
Bremmer, Ian, 34
Breuilly, John, 28–29
BRIC nations, 71, 82–83
Brooks, Stephen G., 43, 65
Brown, Gordon, 75
Brunei, 248, 249
Bush, George W. (administration of):
China and, 114–115, 117–118;
South Korea and, 56, 205, 206, 208, 209, 227, 266, 267
Buzan Barry, 51–52
Búzás, Zoltán, 36
Campbell, Kurt, 241, 242, 244, 275
Carter, Ashton, 122, 257, 293
Chan, Steve, 36, 226
(p.300) Cheng-Chwee Kuik, 45–46
Chen Shui-bian, 56, 59
Cheonan (ship), 215
China:
Australia and, 6, 125–126, 292;
coercive diplomacy, 261–284;
domestic politics in, 17, 23–26, 32–34, 86–90;
economic capabilities/growth of, 72–73, 86–99, 101–103, 138–139;
economic coercion by, 73–74, 83–84, 148, 170, 180, 187–196, 273–274;
economic policies of, 67–90, 97–99;
economic vs. military power, 8–9, 42, 292;
foreign loans and development banks, 6, 73, 82, 107, 255–256;
foreign strategy (overall), 106–117;
hedging by, 41, 43, 56–59, 101, 107–108;
anti-Japanese sentiment in, 30, 32, 148, 149, 169–172, 175–187, 194;
land reclamation/creation by, 61, 104, 145, 250–251, 254, 255, 256–260;
maritime capabilities/strategies of, 2–3, 104–105, 276–277, 280–281, 291–293;
military capabilities/strategies of (general), 42, 138–140, 143–146, 290–291;
nationalism in, 21–22, 25–26, 29–33;
North Korea and, 18–19, 130, 215, 219, 265–266, 268–272, 282;
Russia and, 57, 108, 111–113, 130–131;
South China Sea disputes and, 59–61, 104, 145, 233–260;
China 2030 project, 87–88
China Development Bank, 255
Choe Thae Bok, 265
Chongqing Model, 87
Chung, Jae Ho, 201
Chu Shulong, 193
CICA Conference, 113–114
CLCS (UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf), 235–236, 239, 251
Clinton, Hillary, 18, 72, 237–239, 242–243, 244, 264, 275, 279
coercive diplomacy, 261–284;
concept, 262–264;
Japan, China, and U.S., 272–279, 283;
North Korea, China, and U.S., 261–262, 265–272
co-evolution, 132–133, 229
Cold War, 47, 58, 64–65, 66–67, 263, 297–298
Cole, J. Michael, 184
“comfort women” dispute, 212, 221, 222
congagement, 44
constitutional reform, in Japan, 157–159
Cooper, Zack, 49
Copeland, Dale, 34
Cowpens (ship), 252, 281
Cui Tiankai, 240
currency reserves, 73, 95–96
currency swaps, 78–79, 179–180
Dai Bingguo, 116, 178
defense spending, 42, 66n82, 138–140, 153, 295–296
Del Rosario, Albert F., 240
democracy, 21
Dempsey, Martin, 222, 255, 270
Deng Xiaoping, 23, 106
Denney, Steven, 38
development banks, 6, 82, 107, 255–256
Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands disputes:
China-Japan relations and, 24, 60, 147–149, 180–183, 186–187, 272–279, 292–293;
rare earth embargoes, 74, 84, 148, 188–189;
U.S.-China relations and, 1, 56, 272–279, 283;
U.S.-Japan relations and, 111, 161–162, 267, 272–279, 281
Dokdo dispute, 212, 221
domestic politics, 15–40;
economic interdependence and, 32–35;
realist theories and, 27–29, 32, 35–36, 198;
second-image explanations, 20–26, 32–33;
third-image factors, 23, 26;
uncertainty and, 15–16. See also nationalism
Dongmaengpa school of thought, 224
Donilon Thomas, 119, 250, 278–279
Downs, Erica Strecker, 172
dual structure/two Asias, 100, 104, 129, 133, 201
earthquakes, 179
economic coercion, 73–74, 83–84, 148, 170, 180, 187–196, 273–274
economic policies:
of China, 67–90, 97–99;
of U.S., during financial crisis, 78–80
economic strength:
of U.S., 92–97, 103, 133
embargoes and boycotts:
consumer boycott, 188–191;
rare earth embargoes, 74, 84, 148, 188–189
entrapment, 11, 205, 263, 268, 279, 280
exchange rate policies, 79–80, 81
exports, 93–94, 102, 174, 202, 292
Fallon, William J., 118
Fan Changlong, 255
Fang Fenghui, 270
Feigenbaum, Evan A., 104
Feng Wei, 190
Ferchen, Matt, 86
Fiery Cross Reef, 293
fifth column, 192–194
(p.301) financial crisis (2008), 24;
China’s response to, 79–87, 97–98;
perceived threats to global order, 69–78;
U.S. response to, 78–80
financial sector, 94–96
Finlandization, 199
Fisman, Raymond, 189
FONOPs (Freedom of Navigation operations), 257, 258
Foot, Rosemary, 56–57
Freidhoff, Karl, 38
Friedberg, Aaron, 22, 44
Fujitsu employee arrests, 274
Fukuyama, Francis, 74, 77
Fu Ying, 244, 247
G-20 monitoring, 79–80
Gao Hucheng, 194
GDP:
Asian vs. European, 285n1;
of China-ASEAN free trade area, 106–107;
China vs. U.S., 72;
Chinese growth in, 101–102, 138, 295;
deceptiveness of, 94;
defense spending as percent of, 42, 66n82, 138–140, 153, 295–296;
fiscal spending as a percent of, 81;
international distribution of, 64
GDP (Gross Domestic Product), 139fig
geography:
China strategies and, 287;
Japanese security strategy and, 140–142, 145–146;
military conflicts and, 40, 66–67, 296–298
Gill, Bates, 219
Gilpin, Robert, 24, 96, 137n2, 170, 288, 289–290, 292, 296
global financial crisis. See financial crisis (2008)
Goh, Evelyn, 45, 46n18
Goldstein, Avery, 56, 59, 106
Green, Michael, 218
Greenspan, Alan, 75
Guam, 118–119, 294
gyunhyong oigyo, 217
Hagel, Chuck, 221, 281–282
Hagström, Linus, 188–189
Hainan Province, 252
Halper, Stefan, 76–77
hedging:
by China, 41, 43, 56–59, 101, 107–108;
concept and theory of, 44–53, 105;
conditions favoring, 46–47, 50–53, 105–106;
extensive, 43, 46–48;
negative moderate, 43, 46–48;
by regional states, 41, 43, 101, 123–128, 129, 133;
shift away from, 8, 41, 59;
by South Korea, 287;
by U.S., 41, 43, 53–56, 101, 117–123
hegemonic wars, 296–298
high-speed rail program, 175
Hirschman, Albert, 33, 191–192
Hughes, Christopher, 37
Hu Jintao, 114, 175, 178, 210
human rights, 20–21
HYSY 981, 254, 294
Ikenberry, G. John, 48, 67
Impeccable (ship), 237
India, 163, 166, 167–168, 293
internal balancing, 198
Iran, 264–265, 280
Ishihara, Shintaro, 148, 182, 274
Jacques, Martin, 77
Jajoopa school of thought, 205, 208, 224
Japan:
Australia and, 120–121, 163, 166–167;
balancing by, 287;
coercive diplomacy and, 272–279, 283;
constitutional reform, 157–159;
foreign strategy (overall), 36–39, 160–168;
GDP, 139fig;
military capabilities/strategy, 140–142, 145–459, 153, 282, 287;
nationalism in, 7, 17, 37–38, 138, 146–149;
South Korea, China, and, 179–180;
South Korea, U.S., and, 211, 212, 214, 220–224;
Jiang Weizeng, 190
Jiang Zemin, 203
Jin Baisong, 190
Johnston, Iain, 97
Kahler, Miles, 85
Kang, David, 129, 225
Kaplan, Robert, 40, 296–297
Katz, Richard, 173, 174
Kennedy, Scott, 86
Kerry, John, 270, 271–272, 278, 279, 283
Kim Dae-jung, 203
Kim Jong-Il, 265
Kim Jong-un, 18
Kim Young-sam, 207, 214
Kirshner, Jonathan, 33–34
Kissinger, Henry, 132, 229
Kleine-Ahlbrandt, Stephanie, 184, 220
Koizumi, Junichiro, 175
Kugler, Jacek, 288
Kupchan, Charles, 78
Kuwajima, Hiroaki, 192
Lampton, David, 21–22
land reclamation/creation, 61, 104, 145, 250–251, 254, 255, 256–260
Layne, Christopher, 71
lebensraum, 31
Lee Hsien Loong, 127–128
Lee Myung-bak, 197, 210–216, 224–225
(p.302) Le Yucheng, 84–85, 150
Li Bin, 207
Lieberthal, Kenneth, 72, 77
Li Keqiang, 86, 87, 88, 90, 107, 248, 249, 270
Lim, Darren J., 49
Liu Junhong, 192
Liu Weimin, 110, 112
Li Yiqiang, 185–186, 255
Li Zhaoxing, 176–177
Luo Yuan, 266
Malaysia, 236, 239, 253, 292
Manicom, James, 179
Manning, Robert A., 104
Mastanduno, Michael, 67, 78
Ma Xiaotian, 265–269
McNally, Christopher, 82
Mearsheimer, John, 131, 199, 298
Medeiros, Evan S., 45, 53–54, 253
military strategies and capabilities. See individual country
Ming dynasty, 196, 197, 229
Ming Wan, 175
Min Gyo Koo, 173
Mischief Reef, 256, 293
missile defense system (MD), 220, 222–224, 282–283
Mitsui OSK Lines, 191
Morgenthau, Hans, 4, 28, 65, 197
motivational uncertainty, 15, 16
Naoto Kan, 148
Nathan, Andrew, 77
nationalism:
anti-American sentiment in South Korea, 202, 205;
anti-Japanese sentiment in China, 30, 32, 148, 149, 169–172, 175–187, 194;
anti-Japanese sentiment in South Korea, 10, 39–40, 202, 220–221;
in China, 21–22, 25–26, 29–33;
as counterpart to structural realism, 28–29;
hypernationalism, 30;
impact of on policy, 8, 35–38;
in Japan, 7, 17, 37–38, 138, 146–149;
rise of across region, 6–7;
in South Korea, 38, 202;
as tool for elites, 7, 21–22, 36–38
National Security Council (Japan), 150
National Security Council (South Korea), 205–206, 210
National Security Council (U.S.), 53–54
National Security strategy (Japan), 151–152, 163, 166
Nazi Germany comparisons, 31
neoliberalism, 70, 74–75, 89–90, 92
networkization, 101, 120–122, 124
neutrality, 200
New Development Bank (NDB), 82–83
nine-dash line, 236, 238, 251, 253
Noda, Yoshihiko, 182, 274
North Korea:
China-South Korea relations and, 202, 210, 211–216, 218–220, 224, 227;
South Korea and, 204, 208, 210, 211–216, 218, 220, 265;
South Korea-U.S. relations and, 201, 202, 211–212, 214–215, 222–224;
U.S.-China relations and, 261–262, 265–272;
U.S.-North Korea relations, 205. See also Six-Party Talks
Nye, Joseph S., 48, 117
Obama, Barack (administration of):
economic leadership of, 78–80;
global management strategies of, 17–18;
Japan and, 111, 119, 161–162, 253, 278–279;
Philippines and, 281;
pivot to Asia, 55, 61–62, 104–105, 119–123, 212, 221, 294–295;
South China Sea disputes and, 237–239, 242, 247, 250, 251–252, 253, 256, 258;
South Korea and, 213, 267, 281–283. See also Clinton, Hillary; Kerry, John
oil drilling, 165, 166, 241, 250, 254, 282, 294
One Belt, One Road initiative, 82
Organski, A.F.K., 288
pacifism, in Japan, 37, 138, 147, 159
Panetta, Leon, 122, 246, 267–268
Paracel Islands, 61, 145, 236–237, 239, 246, 254, 294. See also South China Sea disputes
Park Geun-hye, 126–127, 197, 217–224, 225, 270, 271, 272
Pew surveys, 71–72, 77–78, 103, 128–129
Philippines:
Japan and, 163, 164–165;
U.S. and, 111, 119, 239–252, 253, 257, 281, 293;
Vietnam and, 236
pivot to Asia, 104–105, 119–123, 212, 221, 294–295;
Chinese response to, 234;
dual structure and, 100, 103;
hedging and, 45, 55, 59;
neutrality and, 56;
Philippines and, 243;
rebalancing and, 66;
Russia-China relations and, 111;
TPP and, 18;
trilateral cooperation and, 212, 220–221
positive moderate hedging, 46–48
power:
continued U.S., 92–97, 103, 114, 115, 133, 288;
shifts in, 3–4, 285–298;
apparent, 69–78, 170;
sources of, 26–29
Pu, Xiaoyu, 86, 91, 289–290
public opinion surveys. See surveys
Puri, Rajinder, 31
Putin, Vladimir, 111, 112, 222
Qin Gang, 185, 211
Qing dynasty, 196, 197, 229
(p.303) RAND reports, 44, 291
rare earth embargoes, 74, 84, 148, 188–189
realist theories:
domestic politics and, 27–29, 32, 35–36, 198;
Japan-China relations and, 170, 191–192, 288;
law of uneven growth, 24–25, 289, 290;
U.S.-China relations and, 41–42
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), 6, 9, 107
renminbi (RMB):
as currency of exchange, 102;
exchange rate policies, 79–80, 81;
as reserve currency, 73, 95. See also land reclamation/creation
Republic of Korea (ROK). See South Korea
reunification (of Korea), 216, 219
RIMPAC (Rim of the Pacific Exercise), 123
Rodman, Peter, 118
Roh Moo-hyun, 197, 203–210, 224
Ross, Robert, 25, 35, 206
Roubini, Nouriel, 34
Rumsfeld, Donald H., 118, 205, 206
Russel, Daniel, 253, 256
Samuels, Richard J., 45
Sansha City, 242, 245, 246
Saunders, Phillip C., 172
Scarborough Shoal, 11, 61, 74, 242, 243–245, 246, 293. See also South China Sea disputes
Schelling, Thomas C., 297
Schweller, Randall. L., 43, 86, 91, 289–290
Scobell, Andrew, 77
sea lines of communication (SLOCs), 141–142, 145
second-image explanations, 20–26, 32–33
Senkaku Islands disputes. See Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands disputes
Shambaugh, David, 85
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), 108, 109
Shangri-La Dialogue, 120, 122, 257
Shen Danyang, 190, 193
Silk Road Fund, 255
Singapore, 62, 103, 104, 292
Six-Party Talks:
Chinese attitudes towards, 218, 219–220, 265, 271, 280;
South Korean attitudes towards, 209, 213, 215, 220;
U.S.-China relations and, 56, 265;
U.S.-South Korea relations and, 202, 215
Sohn, Injoo, 180
South China Sea disputes, 233–260;
increasing US involvement in, 62, 104, 235–243, 252–255, 256–259, 281–282, 293–294;
Chinese assertiveness, 59–61, 104, 145, 243–246, 250–260, 281–283, 293;
mutual restraint, 246–250;
Japan-China relations and, 144, 145–146, 164–165;
land reclamation/creation, 61, 104, 145, 250–251, 254, 255, 256–260
South Korea:
anti-American sentiment in, 202, 205;
balancing by, 198–199, 201, 215–216, 217, 225, 226;
bandwagoning by, 199–200, 201, 206, 208–210, 224, 226–227;
China, U.S., and, 6, 10–11, 199–229;
coercive diplomacy and, 265–272, 282–283;
hedging by, 287;
Japan, China, and, 179–180;
Japan, U.S., and, 211, 212, 214, 220–224;
anti-Japanese sentiment in, 10, 39–40, 202, 220–221;
Lee administration, 210–216, 224–225;
military capabilities/strategy, 205–209, 211, 222–224;
nationalism in, 38, 202;
North Korea and, 204, 208, 210, 211–216, 218, 220, 265;
Park administration, 217, 220–224, 225;
Roh administration, 204–210, 224
Soviet Union, 58, 64–65
Spratly Islands, 1, 61, 145, 164, 294. See also South China Sea disputes
Starrs, Sean, 93–94
state capitalism, 76–77
status quo:
China and, 289;
definition, 137n2;
Japan and, 137–138, 168, 292–293;
South Korea and, 200–201, 225–226
Steinberger, James, 53–54
Stokes, Doug, 95–96
Strausz-Hupé, Robert, 28
structural theories, 15–16, 22, 35–36, 68, 287
Subi Reef, 256
Subramanian, Arvind, 72
Suisheng Zhao, 26
Sukhee Han, 201
surveys:
Chinese attitudes to Japan, 183–184;
Chinese attitudes to U.S., 77–78;
on global power, 71–72, 103, 128–129;
South Korean attitudes to U.S. and China, 226–229
Syria, 63, 264, 280
Taiwan, 56, 59, 74, 263n4, 298
Tang Jiaxuan, 192
taoguang yanghui policy, 106–109, 204
tariffs, 81–82
THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), 222–224, 282–283
Thayer, Carl, 166
third-image factors, 23, 26
third-party coercive diplomacy. See coercive diplomacy
tianxia international order, 129
trade and investment:
China’s global role, 81–82;
economic interdependence and, 32–35;
exports, 93–94, 102, 174, 202, 292;
free trade agreements, 6, 9, 18, 106–107;
Japan and China, 173–178, 187–188, 191–194;
South Korea and China, 204, 216
(p.304) Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), 6, 9, 18
trilateral cooperation, 120–121, 166–168, 179–180, 211, 212, 214, 220–224
Trump, Donald, 18
Truong Tan Sang, 248
UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS), 235–236, 239, 251
unipolarity:
as condition favoring hedging, 51–53;
hedging during, 47–49, 53–59;
shift away from, 63–68, 91–93, 98–99
United Nations Resolutions on North Korea, 19
United States:
Australia and, 6, 104, 119, 120–121, 125, 292;
economic leadership of, 78–80;
hedging by, 41, 43, 53–56, 101, 117–123;
low-cost foreign strategy of, 17–18;
missile defense system, 220, 221–224, 282–283;
North Korea and, 205;
Philippines and, 111, 119, 239–252, 253, 257, 281, 293;
pivot to East Asia, 55, 61–62, 104–105, 119–123, 212, 221, 294–295;
power of, 92–97, 103, 114, 115, 133, 288;
South China Sea disputes and, 62, 104, 233–260;
South Korea and, 6, 10–11, 199–229, 265–272, 282–283;
strategic flexibility doctrine, 205–209;
trilateral cooperation, 120–121, 211, 212, 214, 220–224;
Vietnam and, 56, 104, 120, 121–122, 238–239
UN Security Council seat, 176
U.S. dollar, 73, 95–96
Vietnam:
Japan and, 163, 165–166;
South China Sea dispute and, 236–241, 246, 248, 254–255, 282;
U.S. and, 56, 104, 120, 121–122, 238–239
Walt, Stephen, 225–226
Waltz, Kenneth, 16, 57, 67, 234, 287
Wang Jisi, 72, 77
Wang Yi, 192, 223, 248, 249, 270
war, power changes and, 4, 66–67, 288–289, 296–298
Washington Consensus. See neoliberalism
Weis, Jessica, 172
Weitz, Richard, 223
Wen Jiabao, 86, 89, 175, 178–179, 182
Wheeler, Nicholas J., 57
Will Yinan He, 171
Wohlforth, William C., 43, 65, 67, 99
Wolfer, Arnold, 22
Wu, Junhua, 188
Wu Dawei, 270
Xi Jinping, 87;
China 2030 project, 87;
Japan and, 187;
new security concept, 113–114;
North Korea and, 270, 271–272;
on peaceful development, 109, 115–116;
Russia and, 111;
South China Sea disputes and, 248–249, 250, 255, 258;
South Korea and, 127, 218–220, 221, 222, 271–272;
U.S. and, 262, 278–280, 282
Xu Dunxin, 193
Yahuda, Michael, 172–173
Yang Jiechi, 185, 255, 273
Yang Xing, 174
Yan Xuetong, 31, 112, 130–131
Yasukuni Shrine, 149, 175, 178, 185, 221
Yeonpyong Island, shelling of, 211, 212, 215, 224, 227
Yoon Byung-se, 218
Zhao Tingyang, 129
Zhou Yongkang, 182
Zhou Yongsheng, 189
Zhu Ni, 174
Zhu Rongji, 203–204
Zoellick, Robert, 70, 114, 117–118