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Arguing about AlliancesThe Art of Agreement in Military-Pact Negotiations$
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Paul Poast

Print publication date: 2019

Print ISBN-13: 9781501740244

Published to Cornell Scholarship Online: May 2020

DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501740244.001.0001

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Analyzing Alliance Treaty Negotiation Outcomes

Analyzing Alliance Treaty Negotiation Outcomes

(p.64) 3 Analyzing Alliance Treaty Negotiation Outcomes
Arguing about Alliances

Paul Poast

Cornell University Press

This chapter explores basic patterns in the data described in the previous chapter using cross tabulations. These tabulations show that having strategic and operational compatibility is strongly associated with a higher rate of agreement in alliance treaty negotiations. They also demonstrate that agreement can be reached, though less often, even between states that lack ideal war plan compatibility. The suggestive evidence offered by these cross tabulations is useful, but the cross tabulations also raise questions. While the initial patterns are supportive of this book's theory, the chapter is concerned about potential complications in the data that could undermine the ability to draw inferences about the relationships between variables. These potential complications include selection bias and omitted variable bias. The chapter then identifies how and under what conditions the existence of an outside option influences the outcome of alliance treaty negotiations.

Keywords:   cross tabulations, strategic compatibility, operational compatibility, war plan compatibility, selection bias, omitted variable bias, outside option, alliance treaty negotiations

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