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Tempting FateWhy Nonnuclear States Confront Nuclear Opponents$

Paul C. Avey

Print publication date: 2019

Print ISBN-13: 9781501740381

Published to Cornell Scholarship Online: May 2020

DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501740381.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM Cornell University Press SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.cornell.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright University of Cornell University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in Cornell for personal use. date: 20 September 2021

(p.233) Index

(p.233) Index

Source:
Tempting Fate
Publisher:
Cornell University Press

Note: Page numbers in italics indicate figures; those with a t indicate tables.

Afghanistan War (2001), 139t, 140, 145t, 179–80
al-Qaeda, 52, 179–80
Ali, Ahmad Ismail, 79–81
Altman, Daniel, 128
Amer, Muhammad Abd al-Hakim, 69, 164, 166
Anaya, Jorge, 169
Angola conflicts, 137–38, 139t, 145t, 176–78
Annan, Kofi, 52
Arafat, Yasser, 57
Argentina, 25;
Falklands War of, 27, 139t, 143, 145t, 168–74
Arrequín-Toft, Ivan, 27
Art, Robert, 6
Asal, Victor, 2
Assad, Hafez al-, 79, 81, 86, 175
Aswan Dam, 14–15, 67
Axelrod, Alan, 227n52
Ayyubi, Hazim Abd al-Razzaq al-, 59
Aziz, Tariq, 46, 47, 49–51, 55;
on chemical weapons, 59, 197n102
Baker, James, 45, 59, 149
Bakr, Ahmad Hassan al-, 45
Bandung Conference (1955), 98
Bar-Lev Line, 72–73, 79
Basheer, Tahseen, 82
Beardsley, Kyle, 2
Beckley, Michael, 137
Bell, Mark S., 182n9
Beria, Lavrentiy, 133
Berlin crisis (1948), 114–15, 125–34, 146, 220n75
Berlin crisis (1961), 198n124
Bessmertnykh, Alexander, 195n53
Betts, Richard, 6
bin Laden, Osama, 179
biological weapons. See chemical/biological weapons
Blainey, Geoffrey, 10
Boyce, D. George, 171
Bracken, Paul, 223n23
Brands, Hal, 45–46
Brazil, 174
Brezhnev, Leonid, 73, 75–77
Brodie, Bernard, 2, 6, 190n68
Brooks, Risa, 70
Buch, Benjamin, 58
Bundy, McGeorge, 9, 185n41
Bush, George H. W., 41, 42t, 49–51
Bush, George W., 52
Buys, Andre, 178
Cambodia, 166
Camp David Accords (1979), 34, 77–78
Carasales, Julio, 174
Carter, Jimmy, 77–78
Castro, Fidel, 177, 178
catalytic strikes, 14, 17–18, 37, 178
Chamberlain, Dianne Pfundstein, 46
chemical/biological weapons, 19, 29, 58–61;
Egyptian, 33, 86;
Iraqi, 45, 52, 56, 58–61, 197n102, 197n111 (p.234)
Chemical Weapons Convention, 86
Chen Jian, 213n137
Chen Yi, 109, 111
Cheney, Richard, 20, 45, 59
Chiang Kai-shek, 94, 97, 99, 104–8, 206n1
China, 88;
air force of, 93, 101–4, 106;
GDP ratios of, 90–91, 91;
military spending by, 92;
navy of, 93, 94, 102;
nuclear program of, 89, 103–4, 107, 112;
nuclear strategies of, 89, 104–13;
Soviet conflict of 1969 with, 8;
Soviet military aid to, 93–94, 102–3, 106, 111–12;
Taiwan conflicts with, 88, 97–99, 104–5. See also Taiwan
China versus United States (1949–1964), 38, 88–113, 153–54;
GDP ratios during, 91;
military balance during, 89–94, 92. See also Korean War
China-Vietnam wars (1979 & 1987), 138, 139t, 143, 145t, 166–68, 227n52
Churchill, Winston, 118, 122–23
Clausewitz, Carl von, 27–28
Clay, Lucius, 124, 128
Clodfelter, Michael, 176
Cohen, Avner, 65, 164
Cold War, 7, 114–34, 190n74, 191n89;
Berlin crises during, 114–15, 125–34, 146, 198n124, 220n75;
Vietnam and, 162
Cold War International History Project (CWIHP), 89
Combs, Jerald A., 119, 216n11
Composite Indicator of National Capabilities (CINC) score, 67, 137, 138–39t, 140, 154–56
Conflict Records Research Center, 41
conventional weapons, 30–35, 189n46;
force employment of, 37, 44, 70–71, 92, 207n12, 216n12;
nuclear versus, 16–17, 21–23
Correlates of War (COW) dataset, 137, 153, 159, 168, 181n4, 183n25
Costa Méndez, Nicanor, 169, 170
Crocker, Chester, 177
cross-case analysis, 39
Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), 223n16
Dachen islands, 97, 98, 104
Dayan, Moshe, 66, 71, 165
Dengbu Island, 93
denial strikes, 13–17, 24, 28
deterrence versus compellence, 5–6, 181n10
Diem, Ngo Din, 162
Du Ping, 96
Dulles, John Foster, 99, 107, 111
Duri, Izzat Ibrahim al-, 55–57, 61
Eagleburger, Lawrence, 49
Eben, Abba, 164
Eden, Anthony, 159
Eden, Lynn, 14
Egypt, 45;
Aswan Dam in, 14–15, 67;
chemical/biological weapons of, 33, 86;
CINC score of, 67;
GDP ratios of, 68;
military spending by, 68, 69;
during October War, 17–18, 25, 27, 139t, 145t;
peace treaty of 1979 and, 34;
during Six Day War, 6, 69, 138t, 145t, 146, 163–66;
during Suez War, 138t, 144t, 159–61;
during War of Attrition, 70, 139t, 145t
Egypt versus Israel (1967–1979), 38, 63–87;
GDP ratios of, 68;
military balance during, 64–71, 65t, 69
Eisenhower, Dwight D., 90, 99, 107–8, 111
El Shazly, Saad, 68
Eshkol, Levi, 165
European Recovery Program (ERP), 123
Exocet missiles, 170, 171
Falklands War (1982), 27, 139t, 143, 145t, 168–74
Farouk I, king of Egypt, 159
Fawzi, Mahmoud, 205n120
Fetter, Steve, 17
Finkelstein, David, 108
Forrestal, James, 121
France, 162;
during Gulf War, 55–56, 139t, 145t, 195n53;
during Suez War, 159–61
Fravel, M. Taylor, 98, 109
Freedman, Lawrence, 172, 173
Fuhrmann, Matthew, 3, 10, 214n145;
on displaced populations, 18;
on Taiwan crises, 107;
on US nonproliferation strategy, 20–21
Gaddafi, Muammar, 66, 83
Gaddis, John Lewis, 21, 109, 113
Galtieri, Leopoldo, 169–70
Gamasy, Mohammed el-, 79, 82
Garthoff, Raymond, 130
Gartzke, Erik, 3
Gawyrch, George, 73
Geldenhuys, Jan, 177–78
George, Alexander L., 220n75
Germany, 6, 25, 97, 114, 117, 121–32
Gerson, Michael, 9
Ghaleb, Murad, 74
Ghanim, Hafiz, 66
Ghorbal, Ashraf, 72, 75
Glaser, Charles L., 17
Glaspie, April, 47, 49, 194n41
Gobarev, Victor, 119, 127, 131
Godwin, Paul, 96
Gorbachev, Mikhail, 50–51
Gordin, Michael, 133 (p.235)
Gormley, Dennis, 22
Grauer, Ryan, 70, 207n12, 216n12
Greece, 122
Green, Brendan, 17
Greenhill, Kelly, 6
Gretchko, Andrei, 84
Gromyko, Andrei, 99, 113
Groves, Leslie, 16
guerrilla warfare, 20, 27, 144, 161–63, 166, 176
Gulf War (1991), 40–62, 138, 139t, 153–54;
battlefield deaths in, 145t;
possible nuclear use during, 20, 28, 40, 56–62;
precision-guided weapons of, 15–17;
Saudi Arabia during, 45, 54–55, 61;
Scud missile strikes during, 188n26;
United Nations during, 49–51, 59. See also Iraq versus United States
Haig, Alexander, 81, 172, 228n87
Hammadi, Sa’dun, 58
Haslam, Jonathan, 215n187
Haun, Phil, 45, 50, 179, 180
Heikal, Mohamed, 66, 84
Hiroshima bomb, 1, 14–16, 130, 133
Ho Chi Minh, 162–63
Holloway, David, 122, 131, 134
Hong Kong, 94
Horowitz, Michael C., 70, 207n12, 216n12
Hull, John, 16
Hungary, Soviet invasion of, 138t, 145t, 161–62
Hussein, king of Jordan, 166
Hussein, Saddam, 40–41, 147;
on chemical weapons, 58–61, 197n102, 197n111;
as military leader, 40, 44, 46–55, 60;
as political leader, 45, 50;
on US nuclear option, 40, 57–58
Huth, Paul, 9
Iklé, Fred, 28
India, 7–8, 16, 33
International Atomic Energy Agency, 52
International Crisis Behavior (ICB) dataset, 137, 181n4
International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), 68
Iran, 11, 16, 122, 148
Iran-Contra scandal, 46
Iran-Iraq War (1980–1990), 44, 46
Iraq, 11;
chemical/biological weapons of, 45, 52, 56, 58–61, 197n102, 197n111;
Egypt and, 45;
GDP ratios of, 43, 46;
military spending by, 44;
navy of, 43;
nuclear program of, 40;
during October War, 139t, 145t;
during Six Day War, 66, 139t, 145t
Iraq versus United States (1979–2003), 6, 38, 40–62, 138, 139t, 153;
battlefield deaths in, 145t;
causes of, 46–50;
GDP ratios during, 43;
military power balance in, 43–45, 44;
nuclear options during, 20, 28, 40, 41, 45, 53–62;
oil prices during, 46. See also Gulf War
Ismail, Hafiz, 66–67, 74–76, 80, 202n72
Israel, 34, 77–78;
CINC score of, 67, 140;
GDP ratios of, 68;
during Lebanon War, 54, 139t, 145t, 174–76;
military spending by, 68, 69;
nuclear weapons of, 14, 45–47, 65–67, 65t, 71, 78–87, 163–65;
during October War, 17, 139t, 140, 145t, 146;
during Six Day War, 6, 138t, 145t, 163–66;
during Suez War, 159–60;
US military support of, 75, 75–76;
during War of Attrition, 70, 139t, 145t. See also Egypt versus Israel
Israelyan, Victor, 86
Japan, 91, 96;
bombing of, 1, 14–16, 130, 133, 189n46;
USSR and, 102, 117, 119, 121–22, 133
Jarring, Gunnar, 72
Jericho missiles, 66, 200n7
Jervis, Robert, 2
Jia Qingguo, 94
Jiang Jieshi. See Chiang Kai-shek
Jinmen Island, 93, 97–99, 104–8, 111, 112
Jo, Dong-Joon, 3
Johnson, Lyndon B., 73, 84, 164
Jordan, 139t, 143, 145t, 164–66
Jouejati, Murhaf, 67, 86
Jun, Niu, 104
Kaplan, Edward, 116
Karber, Philip A., 119, 216n11
Karzai, Hamid, 179
Kehler, C. Robert, 22
Kennan, George, 91, 123, 130, 214n161
Kenney, George, 131
Khazraji, Nizar al-, 53
Khrushchev, Nikita, 111–13, 126
Kim, Donggil, 102, 209n42
Kim Il Sung, 102–3, 209n42
Kissinger, Henry, 66, 67, 73, 75–77, 80–82, 84
Knopf, Jeffrey, 30
Korean War (1950–1953), 7, 25, 88–89, 92–97, 100–108, 111, 146;
battlefield deaths in, 144t;
CINC ratio in, 138t;
GDP ratios during, 91;
military balance during, 90–94, 92, 156;
nuclear strategies during, 19, 21, 90, 100, 103, 153. See also China versus United States
Kosovo conflict (1999), 139t, 145t, 178–79. See also Yugoslavia (p.236)
Kroenig, Matthew, 3, 112
Kurds, 52
Kuwait, 6, 40, 46–54, 139t. See also Gulf War
Lami Dozo, Basilio, 169
Leah, Christine, 15
Leahy, William, 117
Lebanon, 98, 174
Lebanon War (1982), 54, 139t, 145t, 174–76
Lee Sang-jo, 209n42
LeMay, Curtis, 116
Li, Danhui, 106
Li, Xiaobing, 93, 112, 168
Liberman, Peter, 177
Libya, 11, 66
Lieber, Keir, 2, 26
Lin Biao, 93, 102, 106
Long, Austin, 17, 18
Macao, 94
MacArthur, Douglas, 95
Madero, Castro, 173
Majid, Ali Hassan al-, 61
Malvinas. See Falklands War
Manchuria, 96, 103
Manhattan Project, 16
Mao Zedong, 3, 93–113;
Khrushchev and, 111–13;
during Korean War, 88, 92–97, 100–103, 106–8, 111;
nuclear views of, 105–13;
Stalin and, 93, 95, 96, 102–3, 109;
during Taiwan crises, 88, 97–99, 104–5
Maoz, Zeev, 157, 165
Marshall, George, 121, 123–24
Marshall Plan, 123–24
Ma’ruf, Taha Muhyi al-Din, 51
Mastny, Vojtech, 127, 130
Mazu Island, 98, 99, 105, 107–8, 111
McCarthy, Timothy V., 59
McDevitt, Michael, 108
Meachem, Jon, 61
Mearsheimer, John, 27, 70
Medeiros, Evan, 109
Meir, Golda, 71, 85
Meital, Yoram, 81
Menéndez, Mario, 170
Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs), 141, 153–57, 154–57, 181n4
Mill, John Stuart, 192n105
Miller, Nicholas L., 182n9
Milošovicˇ, Slobodan, 178–79
Mirage jets, 67, 171, 172, 199n6
Mitterrand, François, 195n53
Molotov, Vyacheslav, 103, 122, 124–25, 128, 130, 133
Mubarak, Hosni, 194n41
Mueller, John, 18
Murphy, Robert, 124, 125
Nagy, Imre, 161
Namibia, 176, 177
Narang, Vipin, 71, 177;
on nuclear strategies, 10, 16, 17, 31, 222n130
Nasser, Gamal Abdel, 66, 69–73, 78–79, 83–84, 164–65, 204n114;
Suez War and, 159–61
Neff, Donald, 73–74, 83
Nie Fengzhi, 104
Nie Rongzhen, 93, 96, 103, 106, 111
Nixon, Richard, 66, 72, 74–77, 84, 85
Norris, Robert S., 198n117
North Korea, 11, 150. See also Korean War
Novikov, Nikolai, 124, 130, 218n54
nuclear monopoly wars, 138–39t, 153–58, 154–57;
battlefield deaths in, 144–45t;
conduct of, 143–44;
GDP per capita and, 154–57;
military spending and, 154–57;
power in, 135–42, 140, 142
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, 21, 84–86
nuclear proliferation, 3, 148–49, 151, 183n18;
as cost of nuclear use, 4, 20–21;
US policy toward, 20, 84–85, 206n131
nuclear revolution, 1, 2, 8
nuclear weapons:
benefits of, 12–19, 21–23, 27–28;
China and, 89, 103–4, 107, 112;
conventional versus, 15–17, 21–23;
costs of, 12, 18–23;
destructive force of, 14;
Iraq and, 40;
political implications of, 1–3, 7–8, 146–51;
“second age” of, 147, 223n23;
signaling intentions with, 17, 45, 59–60, 71, 132, 149, 197n106;
strategic logic of, 12–23, 35–39;
strategies to raise costs of, 28–30;
strategies to reduce benefits of, 23–28, 30;
taboo against, 9–10, 21;
of United States, 42t, 88–90, 90t, 100, 116t;
USSR and, 115, 129–30
Nunn, Sam, 57
Oakes, Amy, 169
October War (1973), 27, 70, 74–77, 139t, 140, 145t, 146;
Soviet Union and, 19, 74, 80, 84, 86;
Syria during, 63, 66–67, 80, 86–87, 139t, 145t;
United States and, 17–18, 25
Operation Allied Force, 179
Operation Desert Fox, 52, 195n66
Operation Peace for Galilee, 175
Operation Provide Comfort, 51–52
Oren, Michael, 148
Osgood, Robert, 27
Pakistan, 7–8, 16
Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), 174–76
Palkki, David, 45–46
Panikkar, K. M., 96
Pape, Robert A., 2, 103, 111 (p.237)
Parker, Richard, 72
Paul, T. V., 9, 172
Peng Dehuai, 96, 97, 100–101, 105, 108
Penghu Island, 99
Peres, Shimon, 205n114
Pershing missiles, 61, 198n117
Persian Gulf War. See Gulf War
Phantom jets, 66, 67, 73
Phillips, Charles, 227n52
Pleshakov, Constantine, 126
Pokrovskii, G. I., 130
Pollack, Kenneth, 69, 78, 82, 86, 160, 164–65, 175
Polmar, Norman, 198n117
Portugal, 176
Posen, Barry R., 26
Powell, Colin, 20, 45, 61
precision-guided weapons, 14–17, 21–23, 26
Press, Daryl, 2, 26
Primakov, Yevgeny, 50
punishment strikes, 13–15, 17, 24, 28
Qasim, Abd al-Karim, 53
Quandt, William, 83
Quester, George, 34, 109
Quinlan, Michael, 172–73
Ramadan, Taha, 55, 56
Rawi, Aayad Futayyih Khalifa al-, 60–61
Reagan, Ronald, 170
Reiter, Dan, 10–11, 154
Republic of China (ROC), 97–99, 104–5, 206n1, 210n59. See also Taiwan
Riad, Mahmud, 73, 76
Roberts, Geoffrey, 123
Roehrig, Terence, 18
Rogers, William, 73
Roosevelt, Franklin D., 129
Rosenberg, David Alan, 207n6
Roshchin, Nikolai, 95, 96
Ross, Steven, 120
Royall, Kenneth, 120
Rublee, Maria Post, 84–86
Rusk, Dean, 14, 67, 82, 85
Russett, Bruce, 9
Russo-Finnish War (1939–1940), 216n12
Ryan, Mark, 108
Sadat, Anwar, 34, 66, 73–82, 84–87
Sagan, Scott, 34, 58
Salazar, António, 176
Samarra’i, Wafiq al-, 55
Sarkees, Meredith Reid, 168, 225n23, 227n62, 230n120
Saudi Arabia, 46;
during Gulf War, 45, 54–55, 61;
during October War, 81, 139t, 140, 145t
Schelling, Thomas C., 2;
on coercion, 182n9;
on restrained conflicts, 24
Schwarzkopf, Norman, 47
Scobell, Andrew, 96
Scowcroft, Brent, 45
Scud missiles, 16–17, 188n26
Sechser, Todd S., 3, 10, 107, 214n145
September 11 attacks, 52, 179
Serbia, 139t, 145t, 178–79, 186n11. See also Yugoslavia
Sharon, Ariel, 175
Shen, Zhihua, 95, 106
Shulte, Paul, 198n124
Sinai II agreement (1975), 77
Sino-Soviet Treaty (1950), 94
Six Day War (1967), 6, 63, 69–71, 138–39t, 163–66;
battlefield deaths in, 145t;
economic consequences of, 72;
nuclear capabilities during, 65–66, 163–65
Skyhawk jets, 67, 172
Smirnov, Andrei, 124
Smith, Walter Bedell, 96
Smoke, Richard, 220n75
Sokolovsky, Vasily, 124–25
South Africa:
during Angolan conflict, 137–38, 139t, 145t, 176–78
South Korea. See Korean War
stability-instability paradox, 8
Stalin, Joseph:
Berlin crisis and, 125–26, 128–31;
Churchill and, 122–23;
Kim Il Sung and, 103;
Mao and, 93, 95, 96, 102–3, 109;
stealth technology, 15, 22
Stivers, William, 128
Strong, Anna Louis, 108
Stumpf, Waldo, 178
Su Yu, 97
Suez War (1956), 113, 138t, 144t, 159–61
Syria, 11;
chemical weapons of, 33;
Lebanon and, 139t, 145t, 174–76;
during October War, 63, 66–67, 80, 86–87, 139t, 145t;
during Six Day War, 139t, 145t, 164–66
Taiwan, 94–97;
during Korean War, 95, 96;
US military aid to, 97, 105. See also Republic of China
Taiwan Straits crises (1954 & 1958), 88, 97–99, 104–5, 107–13
Taliban, 179–80
Talmadge, Caitlin, 17, 26
Tannenwald, Nina, 9, 15, 185n40
Thatcher, Margaret, 169, 172–73
Thornton, Richard, 169, 173–74
Tito, Josip Broz, 74
Trachtenberg, Marc, 2, 6, 127 (p.238)
Truman, Harry S., 32, 119;
Korean War and, 95;
nuclear policies of, 90, 120–21, 133
Truman doctrine, 122
Tucker, Jonathan B., 59
Tunner, William, 128
Turkey, 122
U Thant, 164
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), 38, 114–34;
Angolan conflicts and, 176;
Berlin crises and, 114–15, 125–29, 146, 198n124, 220n75;
China conflict of 1969 with, 8;
Chinese military aid from, 93–94, 102–3, 106, 111–12;
CINC score of, 137, 138t;
GDP ratios of, 117;
during Gulf War, 50–51, 55, 195n53;
Hungarian invasion by, 138t, 145t, 161–62;
Japan and, 122;
during Korean War, 95;
military spending by, 117–18, 118;
nuclear program of, 115, 129–30;
nuclear strategies of, 61, 116, 129–30;
October War and, 19, 74, 80, 84, 86;
during Six Day War, 71;
during Suez War, 160;
Vietnam and, 166;
during War of Attrition, 70, 73, 79, 203n87
United Arab Emirates, 47
United Kingdom:
in Afghanistan, 139t, 145t, 179;
Falklands War of, 27, 139t, 143, 145t, 168–74;
during Gulf War, 47, 139t, 145t;
Suez War of, 138t, 144t, 159–61
United Nations:
Egyptian-Israeli conflicts and, 74, 164;
during Gulf War, 49–51, 59;
during Korean War, 95, 101, 111;
Special Commission for the Disarmament of Iraq of, 52
Valentino, Benjamin, 34
Vautour jets, 66, 199n6
Vietnam, 166
Vietnam-China wars (1979 & 1987), 138, 139t, 143, 145t, 166–68, 227n52
Vietnam-US war (1965–1973), 138t, 145t, 153, 162–63
Vinogradov, Vladimir, 74
Volkogonov Papers, 215n187
Waltz, Kenneth, 15, 147
War of Attrition (1969–1970), 70–73, 78–79, 139t
Warnke, Paul, 83, 85
Warsaw Pact, 161
Washington Special Action Group (WSAG), 80
Wayman, Frank, 168, 225n23, 227n62, 230n120
Weigert, Stephen, 177
Weizman, Ezer, 205n114
Werth, Alexander, 130
Wilson, Woodrow, 162
Wirtz, James J., 2
within-case analysis, 36–37
Woods, Kevin, 54, 59, 196n85
Wu Lengxi, 98–99, 107–8
Xu Shiyou, 167
Ya’akov, Yitzhak, 66
Ye Fei, 105
Yijiangshan Island, 97–98, 104
Yom Kippur War. See October War
Yugoslavia, 74, 186n11;
chemical weapons of, 33;
Kosovo conflict and, 139t, 145t, 178–79
Zakharov, M. V., 103
Zhang, Shu Guang, 93, 99, 103, 107, 213n137
Zhang, Xiaoming, 167, 168, 227n58
Zhang Baijia, 93, 94
Zhdanov, Andre, 133
Zhou Enlai, 94, 111;
during Korean War, 95, 100, 102–3, 107;
during Taiwan crises, 97–99, 105, 113
Zimbabwe, chemical weapons of, 33
Zubok, Vladislav, 126, 130